26/4/2002
Middle East: Neither Inspectors nor Fact-Finders Can Go to Work

24 April 2002. On the 1st of May a round of UN led talks will begin in New York and last for three days. The outcome could be momentous. The talks are to ascertain whether, and if so how, Iraq intends to begin complying with UN Security Council Resolutions. Specifically, whether Iraq will let back in to the country the UN inspectors whose job it is verify that Iraq no longer holds, or manufactures, weapons of mass destruction.

Such mass destruction weapons include nuclear weapons, of course, as well as chemical weapons such as nerve gas and biological weapons such as anthrax or smallpox. The latter is a comparatively new threat and governments on both sides of the Atlantic have been hurrying to order stocks of smallpox vaccine.

We know that Saddam Hussein did have chemical weapons; he used them on his own people after all. Gruesome images circulated widely, of whole village populations mown down by an unseen hand. Chemical weapons are highly effective against an unprepared civilian population.

Nuclear weapons are hard to manufacture - unless, that is, one can procure some weapons grade fissile material. There are worrying accounts of plutonium going missing in the break-up of the old Soviet empire. There is no proof that Iraq has acquired such material - but equally, without the ability of UN inspectors to go anywhere they want and to look over, under, inside, outside, any building, bunker, palace, laboratory or what have you, there is no proof that she hasn't either.

The vital requirement is that weapons inspectors should be able to inspect whatever they decide needs a look. It was largely the Iraqis refusal to concede this point that led to the demise of the previous inspection regime in 1998. The Iraqis maintain that certain areas - Saddam Hussein's various presidential palaces, for instance - are off-limits, at least unless prior notice is given. No way.

The New York talks will be between UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, and the Iraqi Foreign Minister, Naji Sabri. On their outcome much depends. Annan will have at his elbow the respected Hans Blix, officially the Executive Chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission. Blix would lead any new inspection team. He will also have Mohammed ElBaradei, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Expectations of a positive result to the talks are low. Obfuscation, sadly, is likely to be the order of the day. Originally scheduled for 18 and 19 April the talks were postponed because, said the Iraqi side, they didn't want to distract the Secretary-General from concentrating his efforts on peacemaking between Israelis and Palestinians.

This seems a blind. Iraq's belligerence towards Israel is well known. Ten years ago, during the Gulf conflict, Israel came under attack from Scud missiles fired from Iraq. It is also reported widely that Saddam Hussein makes a personal donation to the families of suicide bombers 'for services rendered.'

Many such families lived in the Jenin refugee camp from where, according to Israeli reports, 27 young men and women set out to explode themselves among Israeli civilians in restaurants and at bus stops. Many more suicide belts and bombs, they say, were found in the crowded district, now flattened, at the heart of Jenin.

What Israel did in pursuit of the terrorists has aroused worldwide concern. Amid claims and counterclaims Annan advanced the suggestion of a UN fact-finding mission. The idea was subsequently endorsed by the Security Council. The relevant part of Resolution 1405 reads "develop accurate information regarding recent tragic events in the Jenin refugee camp through a fact-finding team."

A team has been chosen. It is to be led by Martti Ahtisaari, former President of Finland - and a veteran of UN trouble-shooting missions. The other members are Sadako Ogata, from Japan, the former UN High Commissioner for Refugees; and Cornelio Sommaruga, former President of the International Committee of the Red Cross. They are to be assisted by General Bill Nash of the United States who will serve as Military Advisor while Thomas Peter Fitzgerald of Ireland - a former police commissioner - will be the team's Police Advisor, say the UN.

"The fact-finding team will start its work without delay," Annan told a news conference in New York. "It will first assemble in Europe this week and then travel to the region as quickly as possible."

Both Israelis and Palestinians had agreed to the mission - the Palestinians trusting that the team would come up with justification of their claims of widespread slaughter and destruction. The Israelis answered that they had nothing to hide: Jenin had been a military mission to eliminate known terrorists, carried out in a confined space. Force was used only because of the refusal of those involved to surrender peacefully. The destruction visible had been the result. All possible efforts had been taken to protect civilians.

But at the last moment there has been a hitch. The fact-finders are being denied access. The Israelis are claiming that the mission will not be capable of giving a balanced view because it is short of advice on counter-terrorist operations and military action to support them. It is not yet clear whether this is a real objection or just a stalling tactic. In mollifying mood, Annan has suggested that if necessary other names can be added to the team.

We shall see what transpires, but whatever the outcome of the Jenin mission, there are already calls to recognise the plight of other West bank towns that have suffered death and destruction in the past days. Nablus, Bethlehem, Ramallah - the destruction of property and economic life has been savage. People's lives have been shattered; their only 'crime,' that small groups of terrorists lived here and there covertly among them.

Whether this was in some sense 'justified' is beside the point. It is from such turmoil that the cycle of revenge and hatred starts anew. And there will be no shortage of those ready to exploit the tragedy for their own ends, pouring in money, explosives, training.

And near the top of the list is Iraq.