10/3/2006
UN official says avian flu pandemic is very likely to happen

The UN System’s Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza stressed last week that wild birds were not targeted in prevention and voiced hope that containment focussed on domestic birds could control the spread to wild fowl.

“Frankly, there will be a pandemic, sooner or later,” Dr. David Nabarro, told correspondents at UN Headquarters in New York as he updated them on developments since his mission to China in mid-January.

“It might be due to H5N1 or to some other influenza virus and it could start any time,” he said. “We have to behave as though this could start any time, because if we don’t, we will put off getting prepared.”

Since the first reports of H5N1 in Asia at the end of 2003, over170 bird-to-human transmissions have been reported, 92 of them fatal, mostly in South-East Asia and China and nearly 200 million domestic poultry have died or been culled in order to contain the spread.

From two emergency simulation exercises conducted by the official, detailed reaction plans for the UN system would be developed within the next few weeks.

At the same time, a global plan to contain an initial outbreak of the virus in humans moved closer to final form when 70 public health experts concluded three days of discussion in Geneva under the auspices of the World Health Organization (WHO).

A major topic at that meeting was how to get all containment assets quickly to a point of outbreak.

An international conference on the issue had been planned in June.