Refugees and Asylum 31100

In this article Peter Sain ley Berry looks at Europe’s development and considers why enlargement is important to both applicant states and to the EU as a whole.

Ten countries in central and eastern Europe are in the process of negotiating to join the European Union. They form an arc from Estonia in the North to Bulgaria in the South. Malta and Cyprus are also negotiating.

This enlargement would bring another 100 million people into the European Union. Their economies are not yet developed: The Netherlands, with a population of only 15 million generates as much economic activity.

Five states share a common frontier with either Austria or Germany. Four states, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Hungary share a border with Austria.

One of the effects of enlargement would be to allow free movement of people across these borders and in consequence there are concerns – to put it no highly – of the consequences in Austria and Germany in particular.

The fear is of an influx that will displace large numbers of people from their jobs, either directly or by allowing the import of cheap, eastern European goods into western markets. Other countries fear that enlargement will divert money they themselves now receive in European subsidies and funding. Why, they ask, should the European Union already under pressure from high unemployment and a weak currency be attempting a grandiose expansion? They point to the difficulties for Germany that arose from reunification to prove the point. There are even worries even in some of the applicants that western Europeans will take advantage of low land prices to buy large tracts of land and property through intermediaries. A symposium held in Brussels last week attempted to answer some of these questions. The consensus was that far from weakening the EU, enlargement would strengthen it. The likelihood was that both existing member states and applicants would gain.

It may seem surprising but the EU actually has a healthy trade surplus with the applicant countries. As Daniel Gros, research fellow At the Centre for European Policy Studies points out, goods from China come into the EU at lower cost and in far greater volume than those from Eastern Europe. While German MEP, Elmar Brock, maintains that German exports to Poland are now actually higher than Polish exports to Germany. “German exports to Spain increased by 300% when that country joined the EU in 1985”, he said.

Various speakers rehearsed the theme that enlargement was very much a ‘win-win’ process for the EU’s existing members and that fears of impoverishment were unfounded.

Similar fears were voiced in 1985 when Spain and Portugal joined the EU. In the event emigration from those countries to other states virtually stopped. Daniel Gros’ view is that more people are actually entering Poland, Hungary and the Czech republic today than are leaving it. Part of the reason is that the economies of the applicant states are amongst the most dynamic in Europe. They are growing strongly as investors believe the prospect of EU membership will guarantee future stable trading conditions. John Palmer of the European Policy Centre told delegates that enlargement must happen quickly if frustrated ambitions in the applicant states are not to become ‘a trigger of instability’. Indeed ensuring that Europe remains stable and conflict free is seen as a key benefit of enlargement. Supporters claim that the disappearance of the potential conflict between Hungary and Romania would not have been achieved without the desire in both countries to become EU members. Serbia, under the Milosevic regime, had no such prospect.

How many states will join the EU and when? This will depend very much on progress in the accession negotiations. Each state has to agree to the existing body of European law covering such matters as trade, agriculture, health and safety and so on, besides respecting human rights, the rule of law and democracy.

John Palmer thinks we could well see a 25 member EU in 2005, others think the process of enlargement will be more prolonged. Whatever happens the process is irreversible according to Jean-Luc Dehaene, former prime minister of Belgium. There is sufficient money in the EU budget to accommodate the enlargement process at least until 2006, even though there may have to be certain funding switches between the South of the EU and the East.

Graham Avery, Chief Advisor in the Enlargement Directorate-General, reinforces this point. “Enlargement”, he said, was not about simply adding a few more countries. It was about the reunification of our continent”. For the applicant states it will be welcome proof they have at last come in from the cold, their new market economies and infant democracies guaranteed.

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