EuropaWorld 9/2/2001 Will Mozambique Cope If Floods Return?

It is almost exactly one year since the wrath of Cyclon Eline struck Mozambique, compounding weeks of already severe rain, and producing floods that killed or displaced hundreds of thousands of people. It was a humanitarian crisis of mammoth proportions and its effects are still deeply felt. What is worse is that recent weather reports suggest that the whole situation may be about to repeat itself.

Last year's floods caused chaos in Mozambique. A wall of water some 2 metres high was reported which swept across the country's southern provinces, leaving large areas underwater. Although the water eventually recedes, the damage takes far longer to repair. Both crops and livestock were wiped out by the floods, a disaster for a country whose economy - and population - is largely dependent on agriculture. A fragile infrastructure of roads, communications and already desperately sparse schools and hospitals were also, simply washed away in the regions where the floods hit hardest.

What made the disaster appear even more tragic was that it happened to a highly-impoverished country that, nonetheless, appeared to be performing economic miracles.

Mozambique was one of the last African colonies to gain its independence in 1975. There followed a protracted civil war which drained the country's finances and devastated its social infrastructure. A peace agreement was reached only in 1992 with the aid of UN negotiators. However, once this was achieved, Mozambique's government lost no time in implementing a series of economic reforms that lowered inflation and boosted economic growth at a speed that even highly industrialised countries found hard to match. Mozambique's economy grew, albeit from a small base, at an annual rate of 10% in 1997-99, one of the highest growth rates in the world. Despite continuing poverty and a heavy international debt burden, the country was rightly lauded as one of Africa's success stories.

Then there came last year's floods - and a bill for reconstruction, reported by Oxfam International to be in the region of $250 million for flood damage alone. This figure may not sound much to countries like the United Kingdom that, statistics suggest, use this amount on military expenditure more or less every 3 days, but for Mozambique which, in spite of recent economic successes, remains one of the least developed countries in the world, the effects are devastating. As Oxfam GB director David Bryer remarked, the $20 million the government has earmarked for primary health care, or the $32 million to educate its children, seem paltry by comparison.
Mozambique also has to contend with is servicing its debts to foreign creditors an outlay which, reports Oxfam International, drains the annual budget by some $60 million each year. This is more than its education and primary health budgets combined. In response to the floods last year, both the World Bank and the IMF decided to accelerate debt relief programmes and cancel the debt service owed by Mozambique for twelve months - a gesture which doubtless aided reconstruction and saved lives. However, this twelve month period has now elapsed. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the effects of the disaster, which have proved to be far more durable. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation recently announced a project to supply tools and seeds to 100,000 families who have still not regained their full food-growing capacity and are dependent on this food for survival. Even in the provinces not affected by the floods, approximately 70% of Mozambique's 16 million inhabitants live in absolute poverty. Average life expectancy remains under 40 years.

In recent years it really seemed that Mozambique was finally beginning to find a foothold on the international stage, even joining the Commonwealth in 1995. Along with economic and industrial growth, the Mozambiquan government was recently commended by the FAO for its dedication to the development of the country's agricultural sector, and its commitment to the welfare of rural populations. President Joachim Chissano was awarded the Agricola medal in acknowledgement of his commitment to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition - not just in his own country but throughout Africa. The effects of the floods however has been to demonstrate just how fragile these, and other development successes, are. As observed by Oxfam's Kate Horne, despite the gains of the past decade, all it took was a whole lot of water to wash it all away.

And now it looks as if the whole situation may be about to repeat itself. Mozambique again experienced heavy rains in late December followed by cyclones Ando and Bindu in January. Some areas have already experienced swollen rivers and flooding and the government has warned families in certain districts to move to higher ground. The Zambeze river - one of the great rivers involved in last year's flooding - has risen to nearly 5 metres - just 1 metre below flood alert. The UN Children's Fund - UNICEF - has predicted that there will be more heavy flooding in the next few months. The agency's contingency plans project that up to seven provinces may be affected, touching the lives of up to 1.5 million people, 250,000 of whom will be children under the age of five. UNICEF is preparing for a worst-case - but not impossible - scenario of up to 400 000 being displaced and in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.

The World Food Programme have already prepositioned food for up to 100,000 people in Mozambique - just in case the worst happens. The United Nations Development Programme, supported by both local and international NGOs, is also co-operating with the Mozambiquan government on disaster management strategies.

Mozambique is unlikely to reach our television screens unless another catastrophe occurs and right now, there are thousands of individuals striving against considerable odds to ensure that that very eventually never happens. Mozambique is continuing to fight for its development, even if the world's media is not always around to see it.